Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I follow up on the GDP report released after last week’s issue and then cover the employment numbers from last week. The first graph shows the surge in imports in the first quarter (frontrunning tariffs) reversed in the second quarter. The [...]

Executive Summary On Wednesday, July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. After falling 0.5%, annualized, in the first quarter (see first graph), many are expecting a rebound in real growth to about 2-3% in Q2. One can [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s issue, three valuation metrics will be shared to illustrate both the current high and the downside of previous market cycles. The Price-to-Sales ratio in the first graph has never been higher. Following in graph two is The Buffet Indicator, take note of [...]

Executive Summary A Minsky Moment, via the Corporate Finance Institute, “…is named after an American economist, Hyman Minsky, who claimed that markets are susceptible to being unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.” There are three phases in the cycle leading to [...]

Executive Summary This missive compares data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report and the ADP payroll numbers. Last week the BLS reported 147,000 new jobs (private & government), which is obtained from survey responses. ADP reported private sector jobs fell by 33,000, which is [...]

Executive Summary According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter 2025 (released May 2025), total consumer debt has reached $18.2 trillion. Consumers are strapped as higher interest rates on growing debt balances are eating up a larger portion [...]

Executive Summary The first chart below from Vetta-Fi illustrates the average of four separate valuation methodologies. Currently, this average is about 152% above the long-term average, which is slightly above three standard deviations from the mean. Statistically speaking, observed data falls within three standard deviations 99.7% of [...]

Executive Summary As is typical with financial media, the 139,000 new jobs number released Friday was a celebrated “beat.” However, looking under the hood, one may conclude the “beat” is not indicative of the real employment picture. The first graph shows the Employment-Population Ratio dropped (first graph). [...]

Executive Summary In this missive I share five charts of various valuation methodologies for the current stock market. The first is an average of four different measures, which shows valuations over three standard deviations from the mean. Warren Buffet’s favorite, thus called the Buffet Indicator, is near [...]

Executive Summary There are currently almost 43 million holders of student loans totaling $1.6 trillion (see first graph). Since the Covid relief measures as well as talk of loan forgiveness by the previous administration, many debtors were optimistic they would never have to pay. As of May [...]