Executive Summary In 2026 oil prices have round-tripped from $57 per barrel to over $110 per barrel and then back to around $70 per barrel (see first graph). With the apparent breach of the ceasefire with Iran, prices recently jumped to $78 per barrel. The blockade of [...]

Executive Summary Economic growth is the sum of the growth in the labor force and growth in productivity. Recent employment data showed the working-age population grew by 1,581,000 over the last year, while the number of people employed dropped by 1,063,000. Those who dropped out of the [...]

Executive Summary New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult decision on interest rates amid conflicting economic signals and persistent inflationary pressures. The first graph below titled Purchasing Power Erosion Table displays how even the Fed’s 2% inflation goal erodes the dollar. Despite recent declines in [...]

Executive Summary Currently stock market valuations, which are notably bad timing measures, are near all-time highs (see first graph). Investors are paying almost 2.6 times more for corporate earnings than the long-term median price. During similar times in history, investors bought stocks on margin (loans which use [...]

Executive Summary Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly in June, it remains near the lowest level on record (1st graph). Since Covid, goods and services prices are up 25-30% cumulatively, and they rarely decrease outside of a depression. At the same time, real [...]

Executive Summary New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult balancing act ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. A stronger-than-expected jobs report, combined with elevated inflation data, has reduced the likelihood of near-term rate cuts (dovish) and increased the chances of a more hawkish policy stance. At [...]

Executive Summary Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on about $400 billion of cash, and most speculate the reason is prices of stocks are too high. This week’s update will review three notable valuation methodologies for the stock market – The Buffett Indicator, the Schiller P/E [...]

Executive Summary In addition to gasoline reaching $4.50 per gallon, because of the war with Iran, the April Producer Price Index rose 1.4% and the Services Index rose 1.2% (the largest gain in 4 years). In the first graph below, the Headline Consumer Price Index shows a [...]

Executive Summary While the consensus had been for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, rising inflation could force new Fed leadership to raise rates, due to more persistent inflation concerns. That would increase borrowing costs at a time when U.S. debt has already risen to [...]

Executive Summary While the stock market continues reaching new highs, one would think consumers would also be doing well. However, according to the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (first graph), the reading is below the start of every recession back to 1975. The post-Covid [...]