Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter for dating recessions, has not yet declared one – although many economists are predicting one in 2023. Many datapoints are either declining or are reaching points where previous recessions have started. Look at the graphs below including: [...]

Executive Summary Stock markets move in long-term (secular) and shorter-term (cyclical cycles). Historically, the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio could be used to define secular cycles. In the first graph below, one can see secular bull markets tend to start in single-digit Shiller P/E ratios and end in [...]

Executive Summary As 2023 gets underway, the bear market pattern of 2022 continues. After a few down days, another bear market rally appeared. Notice in the first graph below, the S&P 500 has been on a downward trend since the start of 2022. However, as is typical [...]

Executive Summary The December Job’s Report released last Friday provided optimism that inflation is slowing enough to push the FED to “pivot.” Private sector hourly wage inflation slowed to 0.3%. However, it is the apparent strength of the employment situation which astonishes pundits. Key employment datapoints comparing [...]

Executive Summary Asset classes of all types fell last year, leaving a traditional “buy-and-hold balanced portfolio” consisting of 60% S&P 500 and 40% cash and Treasuries, down about 17%. However, the declines were not straight down as evidenced by the S&P 500 (first graph below showing bear [...]

Executive Summary Last week’s Update discussed what could fuel a Santa Claus rally. While the CPI data provided  some fuel, Jerome Powell threw cold water extinguishing the hopes for a rally. The slightly  cooler CPI data resulted in hope for a Fed policy pivot and a market [...]

Executive Summary Talk by financial media for the always hoped-for Santa Claus rally is rampant. On December 13 the CPI for November will be released. If it is down, there will be hope of a Fed pivot. The Fed should state their interpretation at their meeting on [...]

Executive Summary After the pandemic, inflation hit in 2022 because of the massive government stimulus programs. The Fed began fighting inflation by reducing the balance sheet (first graph) and raising interest rates (second graph). The dollar also rose by around 19%, and after giving up some of [...]

Executive Summary Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates, and the yield curve is an  upward sloping line. When short-term rates exceed long term rates, it is referred to as an  “inverted yield curve.” Visually seen in the first graph below, the inverted yield curve [...]

Executive Summary Many people in the U.S. have much to be thankful for; albeit inflation is not one of them. Since energy prices are up 17% over last year (see first graph), holiday travel may be negatively impacted. And Thanksgiving food staples are up significantly (second graph). [...]