About Bob Cremerius

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So far Bob Cremerius has created 248 blog entries.

Is the Jobs Market Strong?

2024-06-19T16:56:36+00:00June 19th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary A look at the “strong” employment data reveals some discrepancies casting doubts on the employment picture. For instance, the Establishment Survey in May showed 272,000 job gains, while the Household Survey reported employment fell by 408,000. Another discrepancy is reflected in the Establishment Survey showing [...]

Is the U.S. in Recession?

2024-06-04T21:21:46+00:00June 4th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the official declaration of recessions, which can occur up to a year after the official start date of the recession. Currently many economists are debating whether the U.S. will enter recession in 2024. This week’s missive provides [...]

Is “Excess Savings” Gone?

2024-05-29T16:11:14+00:00May 29th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary “Excess savings” is defined as savings above the pre-pandemic trend level. The Federal Government and Federal Reserve through stimulus programs and money printing sent checks directly to citizens during the pandemic. As one can see in the first graph, “excess savings” skyrocketed – as did [...]

Have Consumers Hit Their Limit?

2024-05-15T00:22:41+00:00May 14th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary High interest rates and inflation have given the consumer pause. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged 13% last month. The current reading suggests a recession is likely. Consumers, hit with high prices, have cut back on savings and ramped up their use of [...]

Will the Bear Market Continue?

2024-05-07T18:50:26+00:00May 7th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary After the stock market was down in April, it rose over the last two weeks. The question now is whether the bulls or bears take control of the market in the short term. Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fueled the stock market stating the [...]

Why is No One Talking About the Coming Crisis?

2024-04-30T15:45:00+00:00April 30th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As described last week, rising Federal debt combined with higher interest rates, translates to  2024 U.S. interest expense consuming nearly 62% of U.S. income tax revenue. As shown in the  first graph below, GDP growth is slowing. The brewing crisis results from the uncontrollable  fiscal [...]

What are Speculators Ignoring?

2024-04-16T18:40:23+00:00April 16th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The bear market rally since October 2023 appears to have been based on exorbitant speculation on hopes of six or more Fed rate cuts. According to Citigroup, when market euphoria reaches current levels (see first graph), this sets up an 80% probability markets will be [...]

What are Full-Time Jobs Telling Us?

2024-04-09T16:03:57+00:00April 9th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week the monthly jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created, exceeding expectations. However, the details reveal substantial increases in part-time jobs with significant losses in full-time jobs. According to one economist, part-time job growth over the last year has been 1.888 million versus a [...]

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