Executive Summary The Treasury yield curve typically refers to the difference between the yield on the 10-year and two-year Treasury Notes. In normal times long-term yields are higher than short-term yields. The Federal Reserve’s recent rate hiking cycle caused the yield curve to invert – meaning short-term [...]

Executive Summary Over the past year, the economy has weakened, but the “strength” in the labor force has kept us from recession. However, recent revisions in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “new jobs data” bring into question the reliability of the BLS data. Revisions showed that “new [...]

Executive Summary To take advantage of negative interest rates in Japan and a strengthening dollar, investors have been borrowing funds in yen and investing in the U.S. and abroad. This “carry trade” allowed investors to achieve a higher yield on their investments and possibly gain on the [...]

Executive Summary Today’s missive compares the historical price movements in Cisco Systems to the price movements in Nvidia today. While there are some differences, the outcome is likely to be the same.   I encourage you to read The Details below for more information. “Whenever you [...]

Executive Summary Today’s missive compares the historical price movements in Cisco Systems to the price movements in Nvidia today. While there are some differences, the outcome is likely to be the same.   I encourage you to read The Details below for more information. “Whenever you [...]

Executive Summary As shown in the first graph of the missive this week, only 17% of companies in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index over the last 30 days. The S&P 500 Index is market-cap weighted. However, in the second graph one can see the S&P [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I will focus on one financial metric to demonstrate the absurdity of today’s stock market prices. One of the best valuation methodologies is the price-to-sales ratio (P/S). It can be said that this metric is better than price-to-earnings because of the [...]

Executive Summary Every stock market cycle in history has had both a bull (upside) and bear (downside) to it. The challenge is always in calling the correct change in direction. This week’s commentary includes excerpts from Dr. John Hussman’s June 2024 market comment titled “You Can Ring [...]

Executive Summary A look at the “strong” employment data reveals some discrepancies casting doubts on the employment picture. For instance, the Establishment Survey in May showed 272,000 job gains, while the Household Survey reported employment fell by 408,000. Another discrepancy is reflected in the Establishment Survey showing [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the official declaration of recessions, which can occur up to a year after the official start date of the recession. Currently many economists are debating whether the U.S. will enter recession in 2024. This week’s missive provides [...]