Executive Summary While the consensus had been for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, rising inflation could force new Fed leadership to raise rates, due to more persistent inflation concerns. That would increase borrowing costs at a time when U.S. debt has already risen to [...]
Executive Summary While the stock market continues reaching new highs, one would think consumers would also be doing well. However, according to the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (first graph), the reading is below the start of every recession back to 1975. The post-Covid [...]
Executive Summary The first graph below details the S&P 500 being at an all-time high while consumer sentiment is at an all-time low. One may ask how or why this is possible given the geopolitical situation, including the rising price of gasoline. Drawing on the opinion article [...]
Executive Summary Two months into 2026 and the stock market was going nowhere, then the Iran war led the S&P 500 down about 7% for the year. On subsequent hope for an end to the war, the S&P 500 soared 13% (see first graph) to new highs. [...]
Executive Summary Inflation accelerated sharply in March, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year over year and jumping 0.9% in a single month, the largest gain since 2022 (see first graph). While money supply is increasing and could contribute to higher prices, velocity is increasing at a [...]
Executive Summary This week continues the review of Dr. Michael Burry’s paper explaining some reasons why stock market valuations have set a record 34 years above the mean – eclipsing the previous 10-year record- and associated downside risk. In 1996, passive equity investments comprised 6% as compared [...]
Executive Summary This newsletter highlights sections of Dr. Burry’s (famed investor of the movie The Big Short) paper titled: “Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value.” In it he posits “…there was no natural conclusion to the bear market of 2007-2009” due to the extreme policy interventions. Currently [...]
Executive Summary While last week the Fed decided not to change the Fed Funds Rate (the only one they control), long-term rates have been rising (see first graph below). Fears of inflation, the war, and a weakening economy have homebuyers getting cold feet - one in seven [...]
Executive Summary The shock to the oil market created by the war with Iran is increasing fear in the markets. However, some areas were already showing weakness, such as the 2025 labor market. New jobs created averaged only about 15,000 per month and continue that path so [...]
Executive Summary Prior to the war with Iran, oil prices hovered around $60 per barrel. Upon attacks on Iran’s oil facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil spiked to $120 per barrel Sunday night. After discussions of intervention on Monday from G7 countries and [...]