Executive Summary Inflation accelerated sharply in March, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year over year and jumping 0.9% in a single month, the largest gain since 2022 (see first graph). While money supply is increasing and could contribute to higher prices, velocity is increasing at a [...]

Executive Summary This week continues the review of Dr. Michael Burry’s paper explaining some reasons why stock market valuations have set a record 34 years above the mean – eclipsing the previous 10-year record- and associated downside risk. In 1996, passive equity investments comprised 6% as compared [...]

Executive Summary This newsletter highlights sections of Dr. Burry’s (famed investor of the movie The Big Short) paper titled: “Foundations: U.S. Market Structure & Value.” In it he posits “…there was no natural conclusion to the bear market of 2007-2009” due to the extreme policy interventions. Currently [...]

Executive Summary While last week the Fed decided not to change the Fed Funds Rate (the only one they control), long-term rates have been rising (see first graph below). Fears of inflation, the war, and a weakening economy have homebuyers getting cold feet - one in seven [...]

Executive Summary The shock to the oil market created by the war with Iran is increasing fear in the markets. However, some areas were already showing weakness, such as the 2025 labor market. New jobs created averaged only about 15,000 per month and continue that path so [...]

Executive Summary Prior to the war with Iran, oil prices hovered around $60 per barrel. Upon attacks on Iran’s oil facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil spiked to $120 per barrel Sunday night. After discussions of intervention on Monday from G7 countries and [...]

Executive Summary In this conclusion of the series on Currency Debasement (Part 5), I will cover what it would take to have a currency collapse and high inflation. Collapse of the U.S. dollar could occur through widespread loss of confidence in both the Federal Government’s and the [...]

Executive Summary This week (Part 4) will focus on the risk of U.S. dollar debasement from external, foreign-exchange forces rather than domestic inflation. The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency—established at the WWII era Bretton Woods Agreement pegging the value to gold – which means the [...]

Executive Summary In this Part 3 missive on currency debasement, I will focus on the U.S. debt picture and what is necessary to initiate high inflation (see links below to Part 1 & 2). In 2007 the U.S. Federal debt was around $9 trillion, just before the [...]

Executive Summary Last week I introduced the concept of currency debasement, or the loss of purchasing power of the dollar. I stated that this occurs largely due to inflation. This week, Part 2, addresses the chief pretexts for an increase in the money supply, specifically M2, and [...]