About Bob Cremerius

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So far Bob Cremerius has created 251 blog entries.

What are Speculators Ignoring?

2024-04-16T18:40:23+00:00April 16th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The bear market rally since October 2023 appears to have been based on exorbitant speculation on hopes of six or more Fed rate cuts. According to Citigroup, when market euphoria reaches current levels (see first graph), this sets up an 80% probability markets will be [...]

What are Full-Time Jobs Telling Us?

2024-04-09T16:03:57+00:00April 9th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week the monthly jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created, exceeding expectations. However, the details reveal substantial increases in part-time jobs with significant losses in full-time jobs. According to one economist, part-time job growth over the last year has been 1.888 million versus a [...]

What Causes Stock Market Bubbles?

2024-04-02T17:38:47+00:00April 2nd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Some of the reasons used to justify the recent stock market bull market and bubble include: “Don’t fight the Fed,” too much liquidity in the market, zero percent Fed Funds rate, and corporate profits. The first graph shows how the Fed is tightening while the [...]

Are We in a Casino – Dr. Hussman’s Outlook?

2024-03-26T18:31:19+00:00March 26th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary This week’s Update shares Warren Buffett’s comment regarding the current stock market exhibiting casino-like behavior. However, most of this week’s discussion includes excerpts from Economist Dr. John Hussman’s March 21 Market Commentary (link to full comment below). He points out that current market valuation extreme [...]

Is the Market Overvaluation Widespread?

2024-03-19T16:27:47+00:00March 19th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week’s issue compared the exuberance in AI stocks (specifically Nvidia) to the Technology Bubble (1990’s-2000) stocks such as Cisco Systems. This week will expand on the broader market (S&P 500) overvaluation for the same time frame. Back in 1999, 43% of stocks were trading [...]

Will This Time Rhyme?

2024-03-12T17:07:15+00:00March 12th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this issue comparisons will be shown between the Technology, or Dot-Com, Bubble and the current Everything Bubble – extended by the AI boom. The first graph from Charles Schwab & Co.’s chief investment strategist shows the Price-to-Sales ratio for the Technology Bubble through the [...]

Is the Unemployment Rate Giving the All-Clear?

2024-03-05T20:03:58+00:00March 5th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In January 2024 the Unemployment Rate was 3.7%, leading many to believe the economy is strong due to the labor force. However, digging into the data deeper provides puzzling results. The number of employed persons has increased, albeit so have individuals holding multiple jobs, which [...]

Excerpts from Dr. John Hussman’s Interim Comment

2024-02-27T18:34:50+00:00February 27th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this week’s newsletter, I review the salient points relating to market conditions in Dr. John Hussman’s Interim Comment: February 25, 2024, entitled “Speculative Euphoria and the Fear of Missing Out”. Highlights include elements driving FOMO such as new market highs, possible “soft landing,” a [...]

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