Blog
Is Housing About to Hit the Perfect Storm?
Executive Summary Most people have noticed home prices have exploded due to extremely low mortgage rates post COVID along with low inventory [...]
Is it Time to Take Precautions?
Executive Summary Economist John Hussman recently stated speculative bubbles teach investors “dangerously incorrect lessons” that “stocks always recover.” Stock market indices have [...]
Is a Recession on the Horizon?
Executive Summary By now many have heard first quarter real GDP turned negative by 1.4%. In the second graph one can see [...]
Can the Stock Market Really Ever Revert to the Mean?
Executive Summary The first graph below is Warren Buffet’s favorite market valuation ratio. Note from current valuations, the S&P 500 would need [...]
Inflation or Stock Prices, Has the Fed Chosen?
Executive Summary The Fed’s monetary policy for the last ten years has been characterized as “too loose for too long,” resulting in [...]
Are There Competing Forces Impacting Treasury Yields?
Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank’s policies including increasing the monetary base and funding the Federal Government’s stimulus programs led to a [...]
Will the “Solutions” be the Same Next Time?
Executive Summary In March of this year the Fed began increasing short-term interest rates. Typically, they do not start rate tightening when consumer [...]
Is it Time to Pay the Piper?
Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are [...]
Featuring John Mauldin: Brace for (Recession) Impact
Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. This article is reflecting on the trends that [...]