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Is Risk Amplified by Margin Debt?
Executive Summary Currently stock market valuations, which are notably bad timing measures, are near all-time highs (see first graph). Investors are paying [...]
What Do Consumers Need to Feel Better?
Executive Summary Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly in June, it remains near the lowest level on record [...]
What Will New Chair Warsh Announce at His First Press Conference?
Executive Summary New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult balancing act ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. A stronger-than-expected jobs report, [...]
Why Does Warren Buffett Prefer Cash Today?
Executive Summary Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on about $400 billion of cash, and most speculate the reason is prices [...]
Is Inflation Heating Up?
Executive Summary In addition to gasoline reaching $4.50 per gallon, because of the war with Iran, the April Producer Price Index rose [...]
What Will the New Fed Chairman Do?
Executive Summary While the consensus had been for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, rising inflation could force new Fed [...]
Is the Stock Market in Sync with the Consumer?
Executive Summary While the stock market continues reaching new highs, one would think consumers would also be doing well. However, according to [...]
Why Are Speculators Ignoring Risk?
Executive Summary The first graph below details the S&P 500 being at an all-time high while consumer sentiment is at an all-time [...]
Is Risk Being Ignored?
Executive Summary Two months into 2026 and the stock market was going nowhere, then the Iran war led the S&P 500 down [...]