Blog
Blog
Is the Treasury Trying to Manipulate Long-term Interest Rates?
Executive Summary Long-term interest rates are typically determined by economic conditions. Last week, in addition to U.S. debt crossing $40 trillion, Treasury [...]
What Lies Under the Hood of the Stock Market?
Executive Summary U.S. stock market capitalization has reached nearly $75 trillion, but many investors may not understand what is happening beneath the [...]
Is the Labor Market Weakening?
Executive Summary Market pundits closely watch the monthly jobs report, but recent large annual revisions—911,000 and 598,000 jobs removed over the past [...]
How Does One Prepare for What Lies Ahead?
Executive Summary Recently I have written about the increase in speculation in the stock market as evidenced by margin debt (see first [...]
Is it Time to Address the U.S. Fiscal Dilemma?
Executive Summary The U.S. currently runs a budget deficit of almost $2 trillion, and total U.S. Federal debt is approaching $40 trillion. [...]
Where Will Oil Prices Go from Here?
Executive Summary In 2026 oil prices have round-tripped from $57 per barrel to over $110 per barrel and then back to around [...]
Where is the Economy Heading in 2026?
Executive Summary Economic growth is the sum of the growth in the labor force and growth in productivity. Recent employment data showed [...]
Is Inflation Solved?
Executive Summary New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult decision on interest rates amid conflicting economic signals and persistent inflationary [...]
Is Risk Amplified by Margin Debt?
Executive Summary Currently stock market valuations, which are notably bad timing measures, are near all-time highs (see first graph). Investors are paying [...]