About Bob Cremerius

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So far Bob Cremerius has created 248 blog entries.

Are Regional Banks Getting Hit with a Double Whammy?

2024-01-09T17:45:52+00:00January 3rd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary 2024 will present significant obstacles for regional banks. Simply stated, regional banks use depositors’ funds to make loans or invest in Treasury and Agency securities. The sharp rise in interest rates in 2023 created significant unrealized losses from Treasury securities. During 2024 and 2025, over [...]

Is a Soft Landing Likely?

2023-12-05T17:42:10+00:00December 5th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary With last quarter’s credit and government-spending inspired 5.2% annualized GDP print, combined with the Atlanta Fed’s November 22 GDPNow estimate for annualized fourth quarter GDP growth at 2.1%, calls for a recession have moved to calls for a “soft landing.” The ISM November Manufacturing PMI [...]

Is the Consumer Really Strong?

2023-11-28T18:22:36+00:00November 28th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Citing strong retail sales, financial pundits are espousing a strong consumer. However, they appear to be omitting the impact of inflation. “Real” or inflation-adjusted sales have been flat or down compared to last year (see first graph). Many, who had paid down credit card balances [...]

Why Haven’t Home Prices Plummeted?

2023-11-14T18:11:17+00:00November 14th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary With mortgage rates fluctuating between 7-8%, consumer sentiment for house buying conditions  has dropped to the lowest level since 1982 (first graph). However, housing prices have not fallen  substantially due to low inventory (third graph). Once supply levels sufficiently exceed demand,  and if mortgage interest [...]

Is the Outlook for Economic Growth Rosy?

2023-10-31T19:25:04+00:00October 31st, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Third quarter real GDP grew at a 4.9% annualized rate, yet many people are expressing concern about rising interest rates and soaring prices. So, are things rosy? Remember that 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending, which was the main contributor to third quarter growth [...]

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