Executive Summary As shown in the first graph of the missive this week, only 17% of companies in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index over the last 30 days. The S&P 500 Index is market-cap weighted. However, in the second graph one can see the S&P [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I will focus on one financial metric to demonstrate the absurdity of today’s stock market prices. One of the best valuation methodologies is the price-to-sales ratio (P/S). It can be said that this metric is better than price-to-earnings because of the [...]

Executive Summary Every stock market cycle in history has had both a bull (upside) and bear (downside) to it. The challenge is always in calling the correct change in direction. This week’s commentary includes excerpts from Dr. John Hussman’s June 2024 market comment titled “You Can Ring [...]

Executive Summary A look at the “strong” employment data reveals some discrepancies casting doubts on the employment picture. For instance, the Establishment Survey in May showed 272,000 job gains, while the Household Survey reported employment fell by 408,000. Another discrepancy is reflected in the Establishment Survey showing [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the official declaration of recessions, which can occur up to a year after the official start date of the recession. Currently many economists are debating whether the U.S. will enter recession in 2024. This week’s missive provides [...]

Executive Summary “Excess savings” is defined as savings above the pre-pandemic trend level. The Federal Government and Federal Reserve through stimulus programs and money printing sent checks directly to citizens during the pandemic. As one can see in the first graph, “excess savings” skyrocketed – as did [...]

Executive Summary Over 50% of the stock options sold each day for the S&P 500 expire the same day. Translation, speculators are gambling on the daily movement of the market. In the graph below by economist Dr. John Hussman, one can see the market is as overvalued [...]

Executive Summary High interest rates and inflation have given the consumer pause. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged 13% last month. The current reading suggests a recession is likely. Consumers, hit with high prices, have cut back on savings and ramped up their use of [...]

Executive Summary After the stock market was down in April, it rose over the last two weeks. The question now is whether the bulls or bears take control of the market in the short term. Last week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fueled the stock market stating the [...]

Executive Summary As described last week, rising Federal debt combined with higher interest rates, translates to  2024 U.S. interest expense consuming nearly 62% of U.S. income tax revenue. As shown in the  first graph below, GDP growth is slowing. The brewing crisis results from the uncontrollable  fiscal [...]