About Bob Cremerius

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So far Bob Cremerius has created 224 blog entries.

Is the Yield Curve Calling for a Recession?

2022-11-29T19:20:01+00:00November 29th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates, and the yield curve is an  upward sloping line. When short-term rates exceed long term rates, it is referred to as an  “inverted yield curve.” Visually seen in the first graph below, the inverted yield curve [...]

How is Inflation Impacting Consumers?

2022-11-22T16:58:07+00:00November 22nd, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Many people in the U.S. have much to be thankful for; albeit inflation is not one of them. Since energy prices are up 17% over last year (see first graph), holiday travel may be negatively impacted. And Thanksgiving food staples are up significantly (second graph). [...]

When Do Large One-Day Gains Occur?

2022-11-15T18:23:57+00:00November 15th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week when the Consumer Price Index was released, the stock market reacted with a large one-day rally – capping off a volatile week of up, down, and way up. Historically, these types of one-day gains occur during bear markets (first graph). In the age [...]

Are Households Really “Flush”?

2022-11-01T18:07:02+00:00November 1st, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary A recent article in The Wall Street Journal claimed consumers were “in good shape.” The fact missing from the article is the rapid decline in consumer finances. In the second graph below, one can see household debt as a percentage of real disposable personal income [...]

Is the Correction in Housing Just Beginning?

2022-10-25T23:00:00+00:00October 25th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Soaring mortgage interest rates and falling personal disposable incomes are putting pressure on the housing market. When mortgage rates bottomed out around 2.75% and COVID-19 stimulus programs provided cash to households, home prices skyrocketed (see second graph). With current loan rates around 7.5%, monthly loan [...]

How Likely is Hyperinflation?

2022-10-11T15:58:37+00:00October 11th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In this issue, I draw upon an article published on Mises Institute, by Thorsten Polleit titled: Inflation, High Inflation, Hyperinflation. As written in the article, “Goods price inflation is the symptom, and money supply inflation is its cause.” Each time the money supply has risen [...]

Are Earnings Expectations Too High?

2022-10-04T16:42:40+00:00October 4th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary S&P Global website is showing third quarter earnings falling 2.7% year over year. Due to the following reasons, the potential is there for a greater drop: 1) higher input costs, 2) higher interest expense, 3) higher labor costs, and 4) falling personal disposable income. Corporations [...]

Is There Further to Go?

2022-09-27T18:46:59+00:00September 27th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate again last week by 0.75% in the fight against inflation. In  the second graph below one can see the estimated rates through 2025. In addition to interest rate  moves, the Fed is also tightening monetary policy by reducing [...]

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