Executive Summary Today’s stock prices are anything but reasonable, and the warning signs extend beyond stock prices.  One would think with bankruptcies escalating, debt loads compounding, profits plunging, and the dollar losing value, the stock market would be falling.  But thanks to the Fed’s electronic printing press [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared a recession officially began in February of this year.  Since March, over 50 million people have filed first time unemployment claims.  Additionally, real annualized economic growth fell 5% in the first quarter and is expected to fall [...]

Executive Summary Some investors might not realize that the S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index.  Although there are 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index, almost 22% of the performance is determined by only five companies or two percent of the total.  Investing legend Bob [...]

Executive Summary If earnings are the backbone of stock prices, the question today should be:  when earnings tumble, should stock prices continue rising?  Some might say that the stock market is “looking through” this set-back and is pricing in a return to normal.  The risk to many [...]

Executive Summary The fiscal dilemma for the Federal Government did not begin with COVID-19.  Although, the impact of the “solutions” for the pandemic are compounding the predicament.  Adding the effects of the COVID-19 recovery plans, the 2020 deficit was projected in April of this year by the [...]

Executive Summary In this market update, I take a look at the macro real estate market – recognizing that real estate is local.  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast estimates second quarter annualized GDP will fall 45.5%.  And as shown in the second graph below, existing home sales [...]

Executive Summary Subsequent to the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank dropped interest rates to near zero percent and created money in attempts to stimulate the economy.  Instead of being used for business investment and expansion, the printed money created asset bubbles everywhere.  Recessions are a [...]

Executive Summary Last Friday the stock market soared upon the release of a “stunning” May jobs report.  The “gain” of roughly 2.5 million jobs versus the estimated 7.5 million job losses resulted in an unemployment rate of “only” 13.3%.  However, the report included a mistake!  The Bureau [...]

Executive Summary Presently, investors are rightfully confused by the diametrically opposed forces influencing markets.  Many have asked: Why are the markets not dropping?  There are two competing forces: economic reality versus Federal Reserve Bank efforts to save the day through more debt and money creation.  With the [...]

Executive Summary Prior to becoming the Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow hosted a financial program on CNBC where he frequently touted, “Profits are the mother’s milk of stocks.” The recent rally in stock prices pushed stock valuations to extremes last seen in February [...]