Executive Summary In this week’s missive I look at other measures in addition to price when evaluating markets.  The VIX Index is a measure of the short-term volatility or risk in the market.  In “normal times” the VIX is around 13; last week it closed at 38.  [...]

Executive Summary Everyone seems to be wondering what the stock market will do after the election.  Prognosticators are theorizing what will happen, and arguments go both ways for both candidates.  It is important to remember the landscape is different this election:  U.S. is in recession, the world [...]

Executive Summary Year-to-date earnings through September 30, 2020, are expected to plunge 43% compared to the same period last year; however, the S&P 500 Index is up about 7% this year.  Ongoing hope of Federal stimulus continues to fuel this bubble in stock prices.  Market volatility is [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I provide a bird’s-eye view of the economy via a number of graphs and visuals.  First is a look at the drop in real annualized gross domestic product growth in the second quarter (-31.38%) along with the projected partial rebound in [...]

Executive Summary The official unemployment rate published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) dropped 0.5% to 7.9% in September 2020.  However, in the BLS’ Employment Situation Summary report, the Household Survey revealed that of the 970,000-person decrease in the number of unemployed individuals, only 275,000 attained [...]

Executive Summary The U.S. has been feeling the effects of growing government debt for two decades through reduced economic growth.  For the past 40 years Federal government debt has grown at a faster rate than the economy.  The effects are cumulative and will continue to build until [...]

Executive Summary A recent article in The Wall Street Journal entitled “European Banks Consider Mergers for Survival” describes how banks are exploring mergers due to a decade of weak returns. It goes on to explain how the banks have survived due to government policies and stimulus programs [...]

Executive Summary Public companies are required to publish financial statements in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  However, if GAAP earnings do not provide the picture stock analysts want, then they shift to alternatives such as “adjusted” earnings, operating earnings or projected future earnings.  The financial [...]

Executive Summary Last month the stock market, especially the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 Index, reflected extreme investor exuberance reminiscent of the Technology Bubble peak in 2000.  There is an old saying:  the stock market rises like and escalator and falls like an elevator.  The recent stock split announcements [...]

Executive Summary Historically, retirees could safely use the old “rule-of-thumb” of a 5% withdrawal rate to supplement Social Security and other defined benefits to provide income during retirement, while at the same time preserving their capital.  This principle typically assumed a 60/30/10 buy-and-hold portfolio – 60% stocks, [...]