Why Haven’t Home Prices Plummeted?

2023-11-14T18:11:17+00:00November 14th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary With mortgage rates fluctuating between 7-8%, consumer sentiment for house buying conditions  has dropped to the lowest level since 1982 (first graph). However, housing prices have not fallen  substantially due to low inventory (third graph). Once supply levels sufficiently exceed demand,  and if mortgage interest [...]

Is the Outlook for Economic Growth Rosy?

2023-10-31T19:25:04+00:00October 31st, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Third quarter real GDP grew at a 4.9% annualized rate, yet many people are expressing concern about rising interest rates and soaring prices. So, are things rosy? Remember that 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending, which was the main contributor to third quarter growth [...]

How is the Earnings Game Played?

2023-10-24T19:12:08+00:00October 24th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Forecasting corporate earnings seems to be an exercise in futility, and Wall Street analysts are always going to error on the optimistic side – even in an economic downturn. The second graph illustrates the profit drop of the pandemic, the resulting spike caused by extreme [...]

Is “Valuation” a Dirty Word?

2023-10-17T21:05:13+00:00October 17th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Some investors think “valuation” is a dirty word and is some type of market timing indicator. On  the contrary, valuation determines whether prices are reasonable based upon historical standards.  Economist Dr. John Hussman has done extensive research on the accuracy of valuation  methodologies, and the [...]

Do the Payroll Numbers Actually Mean Anything?

2023-10-10T18:25:52+00:00October 10th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As a result of the COVID19 pandemic, student loan payments were suspended. However, on October 1 the payments resume, which will affect around 28 million borrowers. On average these payments will be about $350 per month, which reallocates around $7-8 billion per month from consumer [...]

Could Student Loan Payments Be the Last Straw?

2023-10-03T17:23:50+00:00October 3rd, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As a result of the COVID19 pandemic, student loan payments were suspended. However, on October 1 the payments resume, which will affect around 28 million borrowers. On average these payments will be about $350 per month, which reallocates around $7-8 billion per month from consumer [...]

Is the Stock Market in a Secular Bear Market?

2023-09-26T16:53:24+00:00September 26th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Long-term (secular) bear markets are normally much shorter than long-term bull markets. However, they usually return stock prices to an undervalued state. Currently the valuation methodology of the Shiller P/E is 30, with the long-term average being about 16 (See first graph). Since the turn [...]

Load More Posts