Executive Summary Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly in June, it remains near the lowest level on record (1st graph). Since Covid, goods and services prices are up 25-30% cumulatively, and they rarely decrease outside of a depression. At the same time, real [...]

Executive Summary New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult balancing act ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. A stronger-than-expected jobs report, combined with elevated inflation data, has reduced the likelihood of near-term rate cuts (dovish) and increased the chances of a more hawkish policy stance. At [...]

Executive Summary Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on about $400 billion of cash, and most speculate the reason is prices of stocks are too high. This week’s update will review three notable valuation methodologies for the stock market – The Buffett Indicator, the Schiller P/E [...]

Executive Summary In addition to gasoline reaching $4.50 per gallon, because of the war with Iran, the April Producer Price Index rose 1.4% and the Services Index rose 1.2% (the largest gain in 4 years). In the first graph below, the Headline Consumer Price Index shows a [...]

Executive Summary While the consensus had been for the Fed to lower interest rates this year, rising inflation could force new Fed leadership to raise rates, due to more persistent inflation concerns. That would increase borrowing costs at a time when U.S. debt has already risen to [...]

Executive Summary While the stock market continues reaching new highs, one would think consumers would also be doing well. However, according to the most recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (first graph), the reading is below the start of every recession back to 1975. The post-Covid [...]

Executive Summary The first graph below details the S&P 500 being at an all-time high while consumer sentiment is at an all-time low. One may ask how or why this is possible given the geopolitical situation, including the rising price of gasoline. Drawing on the opinion article [...]

Executive Summary Two months into 2026 and the stock market was going nowhere, then the Iran war led the S&P 500 down about 7% for the year. On subsequent hope for an end to the war, the S&P 500 soared 13% (see first graph) to new highs. [...]

Executive Summary Inflation accelerated sharply in March, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year over year and jumping 0.9% in a single month, the largest gain since 2022 (see first graph). While money supply is increasing and could contribute to higher prices, velocity is increasing at a [...]

Executive Summary This week continues the review of Dr. Michael Burry’s paper explaining some reasons why stock market valuations have set a record 34 years above the mean – eclipsing the previous 10-year record- and associated downside risk. In 1996, passive equity investments comprised 6% as compared [...]