What Happened in the Stock Market?

2021-09-21T18:02:28+00:00September 21st, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Monday’s stock market move may have seemed a bit extreme. Many financial pundits will speculate as to the cause; however, sometimes they are correct and other times it is just speculation. This move appears to have been the contagion effect from China’s Evergrande Group, whose [...]

What is Economic Growth’s Dirty Little Secret?

2021-09-14T17:45:27+00:00September 14th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Despite massive stimulus and extreme monetary policy, the “expansion” period between the Great Recession and the Covid19 recession experienced the weakest post-WWII growth rate, at 2.3% average annual growth (see second graph), on record. While the Fed keeps “printing” money (3rd graph), the Federal deficits [...]

Is the Economic Data Weakening?

2021-09-08T17:18:30+00:00September 8th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary This week’s update is brief, so a summary may seem unnecessary.  The two main points are the disappointing 235,000 new jobs reported on Friday of the holiday weekend, and the Atlanta Fed’s revision lower of the third quarter GDP forecast.  The jobs number was a [...]

Will the Fed Actually Tighten?

2021-08-31T17:37:38+00:00August 31st, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week all the economic focus was on what Fed Chairman Powell would say at the Jackson Hole meeting. It seems the Fed, as usual, allowed itself enough wiggle room with no real time commitment, and investors decided to opt for a bullish interpretation. The [...]

Should Speculators Ignore History?

2021-08-17T15:53:48+00:00August 17th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing and mentor to Warren Buffett, in December 1959 commented that at the peak of all bull markets, “past experience” only represents the “sunny side of the investment”. And he also indicated the sentiment that the market has always [...]

Is the U.S. Really Near Full Employment?

2021-08-10T16:35:32+00:00August 10th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Jobs Report released last week reported 943,000 new jobs, and the markets and media celebrated.  What the headline did not reflect was the actual loss of 133,000 jobs, which then was seasonally adjusted (part of the calculation) to arrive at the nearly one million [...]

Has the Economy Recovered?

2021-08-10T16:35:50+00:00August 3rd, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Most investors take a myopic view of economic growth. When viewed in isolation, second quarter real annualized GDP growth of 6.5% sounds outstanding. However, GDP growth per capita remains below trend (second graph below). For the economy to grow, there must be either productivity growth, [...]

Is the Housing Market About to Turn?

2021-07-27T17:03:07+00:00July 27th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Due to low mortgage rates and depressed inventory, the housing market is red hot. Investors have scooped up existing home inventory, while new single-family home sales are off their peak (see second graph). New-home prices are very high (third graph); however, if one takes a [...]

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