Executive Summary As year-end approaches, I decided to review where we are and compare 2020 to historical times.  The year began with weakening growth in both corporate earnings and gross domestic product followed by the onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic and closures.  To fight the negative impacts, [...]

Executive Summary It never ceases to amaze me how financial pundits give such credence to financial projections which more often than not are materially wrong.  Yet in the short run, the stock market tends to react to such misleading data.  Probably the best example is to look [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I give both a visual and an audible example of how over-valued the current stock market bubble is.  First the visual of Tesla’s market capitalization and sales versus the other 50% of the auto industry.  Next the audible of how speculators [...]

Executive Summary The onset of COVID-19 led to business lockdowns and an abrupt halt to economic activity.  Through the CARES Act several programs were implemented to assist with unemployment benefits due to government mandated shutdowns.  However, many of these are expected to expire on December 26. Currently [...]

Executive Summary As a quick follow up to last week’s missive, the déjà vu continued this Monday with another COVID-19 vaccine headline.  Markets jumped on headlines, not financial data. While the S&P 500 Index is comprised of the 500 largest U.S. public companies, the Russell 2000 Index [...]

Executive Summary Last Monday the stock market soared upon news that Pfizer had developed a COVID-19 vaccine, and this Monday stock futures were skyrocketing again due to news of a Moderna vaccine.  According to a quoted article in the Wall Street Journal, there are issues with the [...]

Executive Summary Last week 785,500 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits.  Since Covid-19, the number of weekly unemployment claims filed have exceeded the previous all-time record of 695,000, each and every week. (See first graph) Also, one can see the labor force participation rate never recovered much [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive I look at other measures in addition to price when evaluating markets.  The VIX Index is a measure of the short-term volatility or risk in the market.  In “normal times” the VIX is around 13; last week it closed at 38.  [...]

Executive Summary Everyone seems to be wondering what the stock market will do after the election.  Prognosticators are theorizing what will happen, and arguments go both ways for both candidates.  It is important to remember the landscape is different this election:  U.S. is in recession, the world [...]

Executive Summary Year-to-date earnings through September 30, 2020, are expected to plunge 43% compared to the same period last year; however, the S&P 500 Index is up about 7% this year.  Ongoing hope of Federal stimulus continues to fuel this bubble in stock prices.  Market volatility is [...]