Has the Economy Recovered?

2021-08-10T16:35:50+00:00August 3rd, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Most investors take a myopic view of economic growth. When viewed in isolation, second quarter real annualized GDP growth of 6.5% sounds outstanding. However, GDP growth per capita remains below trend (second graph below). For the economy to grow, there must be either productivity growth, [...]

Is the Housing Market About to Turn?

2021-07-27T17:03:07+00:00July 27th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Due to low mortgage rates and depressed inventory, the housing market is red hot. Investors have scooped up existing home inventory, while new single-family home sales are off their peak (see second graph). New-home prices are very high (third graph); however, if one takes a [...]

What Are Treasuries Saying?

2021-07-13T15:40:02+00:00July 13th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Long-term interest rates, while cycling up and down over the last 35 years, have remained in a downward channel (see first graph). During the pandemic and recession of 2020, yields dropped to .5% - however escaping going negative like Japan and Europe. Many suggested inflation [...]

Are Speculators Running Out of Fuel?

2021-07-07T15:29:20+00:00July 7th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The stock market has now become a destination for speculators.  The most recent target of the market’s lure has been retail investors.  Retail investors historically have been the last to arrive and depart the party; thereby, suffering the most damage during the speculative market’s reversion [...]

How Overvalued is the Stock Market?

2021-06-08T16:36:07+00:00June 8th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary This week’s market update is relatively short in words and is composed mostly of charts and graphs of various stock market valuation methodologies.  It is important to note that valuation methodologies are great indicators of long-term price movements; however, they are terrible short-term indicators.  What [...]

What Will Speculators Learn?

2021-06-02T16:19:41+00:00June 2nd, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Since the pandemic took charge of the economy, several stimulus plans have been enacted by Congress.  Each round produced a short-term economic sugar boost before settling down to zero percent growth (see first graph).  The stimulus created more Federal debt.  Although Federal debt has been [...]

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