About Bob Cremerius

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So far Bob Cremerius has created 304 blog entries.

How Strong is the Employment Situation?

2022-07-12T15:44:54+00:00July 12th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Financial media proclaims the job market is strong, citing 372,000 jobs created in June according to the Establishment Survey. However, digging into the details reveals some ignored discrepancies. Since March 2022, the Establishment Survey shows 1.124 million jobs created where the Household Survey shows 347,000 [...]

Is the U.S. In a Recession?

2022-07-06T16:20:48+00:00July 6th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary During the first quarter, economic growth fell 1.6%. Many expected a rebound in Q2. Unfortunately, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecasting model, the economy shrank again in the second quarter by an estimated 2.1%. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is what many pundits [...]

Will It Be Inflation or Deflation?

2022-06-28T20:02:16+00:00June 28th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Inflation, or general price increases, are reported through the Consumer Price Index which is currently up 8.6% - a 40-year high (second graph). The Federal Reserve Bank contributed to inflation with loose monetary policy along with U.S. government stimulus programs.  In order to fight high [...]

Is TINA Gone?

2022-06-21T20:16:44+00:00June 21st, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Over the last ten years or more of loose Fed monetary policy, investors began to believe stocks would only go up in price. Extremely low-interest rates could not compete with the two percent  S&P 500 dividend yield. Investors took on more risk than what was [...]

Has the Stock Market Bottomed?

2022-06-14T15:38:17+00:00June 14th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index hit technical bear market territory Monday, June 13, falling below 20%  year-to-date. Such large drops have many investors and pundits already attempting to pick the  bottom and recommending buying-the-dip. However, this time the Fed is in a tightening policy  which eliminates [...]

What Does Inflation Affect?

2022-06-14T15:54:41+00:00June 7th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In addition to the massive rise in gas prices, almost all goods and services (see first graph) have  seen significant price increases, resulting in consumers changing spending habits. The reduction  in consumer demand will have a negative effect on corporate profitability (see 4th graph).  COVID [...]

What Are Some Global Red Flags?

2022-06-01T16:01:05+00:00June 1st, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Economic red flags are waving across the globe, meaning the challenges are not limited to the United States. The European Union’s 27 member states just recoded 8.1% year over year inflation. The E.U.’s partial ban on Russian oil because of the Russian war with Ukraine [...]

Are the Storm Clouds Darkening?

2022-05-25T15:23:22+00:00May 25th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Dow just finished its eighth consecutive down week, which has not happened since 1923. The Fed is sticking with their plan to fight inflation – even if the stock market suffers. Oil and gas are leading inflation with the record high national average gas [...]

Is Housing About to Hit the Perfect Storm?

2022-05-17T18:28:01+00:00May 17th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Most people have noticed home prices have exploded due to extremely low mortgage rates post COVID along with low inventory levels. Inflation and mortgage rates have risen sharply; however, government stimulus has ended. Wages have not kept pace which means housing is very unaffordable (see [...]

Is it Time to Take Precautions?

2022-05-10T15:06:46+00:00May 10th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Economist John Hussman recently stated speculative bubbles teach investors “dangerously incorrect lessons” that “stocks always recover.” Stock market indices have turned negative this year, and the dispersion of returns within are disturbing (second graph). The Buffet Indicator (third graph) shows much more room to fall [...]

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