Executive Summary Recently stock markets have appeared optimistic, even though financial data does not agree. In the first graph below, one can see banks are tightening lending standards, which is consistent with prior recessions. In a debt driven society, reduced lending results in lower demand and smaller [...]

Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from Wolf Richter. This article reflects on trends that we typically use to measure our economic position - services, goods, energy, or groceries - and how they pertain to consumers, and how their current positions can [...]

Executive Summary During the COVID pandemic, many companies implemented work-from-home strategies, resulting in the realization of needing less office space. The impact of reduced occupancy (see first graph) could be an issue for owners and financiers of commercial real estate. Much of which is highly leveraged with [...]

Executive Summary Last week saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Over the weekend, regulators and government officials scrambled to forge a rescue deal for Credit Suisse, through a purchase by UBS. Credit Suisse shareholders will still suffer losses. The banking and financial system [...]

Executive Summary Last week many heard about the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Over the weekend, a joint statement (included below in The Details) was released by Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Board Chair, and Martin Gruenberg, FDIC Chairman. This letter would also [...]

Executive Summary Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the standards for financial reporting, used to be used in financial analysis. However, now the financial industry prefers “adjusted” or “forward” earnings as they allow for manipulations, justifying overpriced stocks. One can see in the second graph below the divergence [...]

Executive Summary For almost forty years mortgage interest rates were trending down (see first graph), until 2022 when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising the Fed Funds rate to fight inflation. In 2021 home prices skyrocketed (2nd graph) in part due to low rates and Federal COVID [...]

Executive Summary While it is normal to have rallies during bear markets, volatility caused by options trading currently appears to be having a more profound effect. Options give the purchaser the right to buy or sell an underlying stock at a specific price. The use of shorter-term [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s Update, I share thoughts from Dennis M. Kelleher, Cofounder, President and CEO  of Better Markets, “An independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes the  public interest in financial reform, financial markets and the economy.” Since I have shared  numerous thoughts on the Fed’s [...]

Executive Summary The first graph below illustrates the massive increase in the national debt, which now totals over $31.5 trillion. With interest rates rising, the cost of carrying the U.S. debt skyrocketed 40% (see second graph). By ignoring the future costs of uncontrollable Federal debt, policymakers are [...]