Has the Fed Distorted Secular Market Cycles?
Executive Summary Stock markets move in long-term (secular) and shorter-term (cyclical cycles). Historically, the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio could be used to [...]
What Does 2023 Hold?
Executive Summary As 2023 gets underway, the bear market pattern of 2022 continues. After a few down days, another bear market rally [...]
Which Payroll Numbers are Correct?
Executive Summary The December Job’s Report released last Friday provided optimism that inflation is slowing enough to push the FED to “pivot.” [...]
Will 2023 be Better?
Executive Summary Asset classes of all types fell last year, leaving a traditional “buy-and-hold balanced portfolio” consisting of 60% S&P 500 and [...]
How High is the Terminal Rate Projection?
Executive Summary Last week’s Update discussed what could fuel a Santa Claus rally. While the CPI data provided some fuel, Jerome Powell [...]
What Could Cause a Santa Claus Rally?
Executive Summary Talk by financial media for the always hoped-for Santa Claus rally is rampant. On December 13 the CPI for November [...]