Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank controls the very short-term Federal Funds Rate; however, longer-term interest rates tend to track economic growth.  In the second graph in The Details, one can visually see the correlation between economic growth and the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note.  And [...]

Executive Summary Recent speculation on the shape of the economic recovery has been described as a “V”, a “U” or even an “L”.  Since the drop in the stock market in March was drastic and fast, and followed by a strong bear market rally, economic speculation is [...]

Executive Summary Many investors are probably thinking the recent stock market correction brought stock valuations more in-line with their long-term average. Stock valuations are typically measured using some derivation of the price-to-earnings ratio. The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio was 24 in February. However, due to the COVID-19 [...]

Executive Summary In November 2008 the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) initiated QE1 (The first Quantitative Easing program), the purchase of Treasury Securities with “created” money. They also began moving short-term interest rates zero-bound in an attempt to rescue the struggling economy. After successive QE programs, the result [...]

Executive Summary The week has started with broader markets moving higher. Although, the underlying data is moving in the opposite direction. In an effort to share research from others and not just my thoughts, I have included data from Sven Henrich of Northman Trader, Crescat Capital, as [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s newsletter, I outline investment risk verses fear of missing out. Investor risk is the risk of loss, which is increased when stock prices disconnect from corporate profits. Fear of missing out involves continuing to hold overvalued stock, speculating that one will still [...]

Executive Summary When someone buys stock, they are buying future corporate earnings. When prices rise, that should mean corporate profits have risen. The first chart below is a must see. This demonstrates the rising price without the corresponding rising profit, also known as multiple expansion. Historically, when [...]

Executive Summary It seems the President, the Federal Reserve Bank and politicians are touting record high stock prices as a reflection of a great economy. However, the GDP number released last week was only 1.9%, which is below average growth over the last ten years, and over [...]