Is the Fed Really Juicing the Stock Market?

2021-05-04T20:38:01+00:00May 4th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) has been implementing QE (Quantitative Easing) on and off for over a decade.  In implementing QE, the Fed purchases Treasury securities and Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) – not stocks.  Many believe the Fed is “printing money” when purchasing those bonds.  [...]

What is Going on in the Housing Market?

2021-05-04T17:22:09+00:00April 27th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Anyone who has been paying attention to the residential real estate market lately is probably shaking their head.  It is definitely a seller’s market.  The driving factor in housing, like most markets, is supply and demand.  The lack of supply, combined with other factors discussed [...]

What Happens During Manias?

2021-05-04T17:22:27+00:00April 20th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Since 1990, the monetary base has grown from around $300 billion to close to $5.5 trillion. (See first graph) The massive amount of liquidity provided through the Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) monetary policy has helped fuel enormous bubbles in all types of assets. One of [...]

Is the Wedge Still Growing?

2021-05-04T17:22:43+00:00April 13th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The first graph below illustrates the growth in corporate profits versus the S&P 500 Index.  The point of sharing this is not to predict a stock crash, but rather to display the embedded risk in the market.  Historically market cycles have consisted of both an [...]

What Would a Rise in Mortgage Rates Do to Housing?

2021-05-04T17:25:03+00:00March 9th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The current housing market appears to be booming with continually escalating prices. Substantially aided by the Fed’s low interest rates, rising home prices are disconnected from the Consumer Price Index, a proxy for inflation (see second graph below). The fifth graph in The Details demonstrates [...]

How Does the Crowd Exit All at Once?

2021-03-02T16:40:32+00:00March 2nd, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The quote below is from Warren Buffet’s long-time business partner, Charlie Munger, and speaks to the recent irrationality in the stock market.  One valuation metric used to evaluate the price of a stock is the price to earnings ratio.  Historically, the average P/E ratio for [...]

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