Executive Summary Last week many heard about the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Over the weekend, a joint statement (included below in The Details) was released by Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Board Chair, and Martin Gruenberg, FDIC Chairman. This letter would also [...]

Executive Summary Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the standards for financial reporting, used to be used in financial analysis. However, now the financial industry prefers “adjusted” or “forward” earnings as they allow for manipulations, justifying overpriced stocks. One can see in the second graph below the divergence [...]

Executive Summary For almost forty years mortgage interest rates were trending down (see first graph), until 2022 when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising the Fed Funds rate to fight inflation. In 2021 home prices skyrocketed (2nd graph) in part due to low rates and Federal COVID [...]

Executive Summary While it is normal to have rallies during bear markets, volatility caused by options trading currently appears to be having a more profound effect. Options give the purchaser the right to buy or sell an underlying stock at a specific price. The use of shorter-term [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s Update, I share thoughts from Dennis M. Kelleher, Cofounder, President and CEO  of Better Markets, “An independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes the  public interest in financial reform, financial markets and the economy.” Since I have shared  numerous thoughts on the Fed’s [...]

Executive Summary The first graph below illustrates the massive increase in the national debt, which now totals over $31.5 trillion. With interest rates rising, the cost of carrying the U.S. debt skyrocketed 40% (see second graph). By ignoring the future costs of uncontrollable Federal debt, policymakers are [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter for dating recessions, has not yet declared one – although many economists are predicting one in 2023. Many datapoints are either declining or are reaching points where previous recessions have started. Look at the graphs below including: [...]

Executive Summary Stock markets move in long-term (secular) and shorter-term (cyclical cycles). Historically, the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio could be used to define secular cycles. In the first graph below, one can see secular bull markets tend to start in single-digit Shiller P/E ratios and end in [...]

Executive Summary As 2023 gets underway, the bear market pattern of 2022 continues. After a few down days, another bear market rally appeared. Notice in the first graph below, the S&P 500 has been on a downward trend since the start of 2022. However, as is typical [...]

Executive Summary The December Job’s Report released last Friday provided optimism that inflation is slowing enough to push the FED to “pivot.” Private sector hourly wage inflation slowed to 0.3%. However, it is the apparent strength of the employment situation which astonishes pundits. Key employment datapoints comparing [...]