Blog
Blog
Is the U.S. Really Near Full Employment?
Executive Summary The Jobs Report released last week reported 943,000 new jobs, and the markets and media celebrated. What the headline did [...]
Has the Economy Recovered?
Executive Summary Most investors take a myopic view of economic growth. When viewed in isolation, second quarter real annualized GDP growth of [...]
Is the Housing Market About to Turn?
Executive Summary Due to low mortgage rates and depressed inventory, the housing market is red hot. Investors have scooped up existing home [...]
Monetary Policy Is Not Expansionary
Executive Summary Since I am out of town taking a few days of R&R, I want to share an article written recently [...]
What Are Treasuries Saying?
Executive Summary Long-term interest rates, while cycling up and down over the last 35 years, have remained in a downward channel (see [...]
Are Speculators Running Out of Fuel?
Executive Summary The stock market has now become a destination for speculators. The most recent target of the market’s lure has been [...]
What Could Turn Transitory Inflation into Stagflation?
Executive Summary To understand the risk of inflation or stagflation, it is important to know how “money” is created and what is [...]
Growth, Inflation and Rates: Are They All Transitory?
Executive Summary A relatively strong correlation exists between economic growth, inflation and 10-year Treasury yields as can be seen below (first graph). [...]
What Type of Debt Has Been Building, Good or Bad Debt?
Executive Summary In this missive, I will review debt levels and growth of the following types of debt: Federal, nonfinancial corporate, and [...]