Blog
Are There Competing Forces Impacting Treasury Yields?
Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank’s policies including increasing the monetary base and funding the Federal Government’s stimulus programs led to a [...]
Will the “Solutions” be the Same Next Time?
Executive Summary In March of this year the Fed began increasing short-term interest rates. Typically, they do not start rate tightening when consumer [...]
Is it Time to Pay the Piper?
Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are [...]
Featuring John Mauldin: Brace for (Recession) Impact
Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. This article is reflecting on the trends that [...]
Will Investors Ignore What Is Under the Hood?
Executive Summary Markets have been reacting significantly on every news headline regarding the Russian/Ukrainian war. The sanctions and supply disruptions could last [...]
Can the Fed Fight Stagflation?
Executive Summary As discussed in previous newsletters, economic growth is slowing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reduced the first quarter GDP growth [...]
Is the Economy Slowing?
Executive Summary The current real GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for first quarter 2022 is 0.6%, which is a [...]
Has Multiple Expansion Turned into Multiple Contraction?
Executive Summary Multiple expansion means investors pay more per dollar of corporate earnings for a share of stock. The opposite would be [...]
Is the Fed Behind the Curve?
Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) has two mandates: maximum employment and stable prices. However, their addition of a third unwritten [...]