Executive Summary After working-off the defaults and write-offs from the Financial Crisis, debt immediately became in-vogue again.  In fact, by the end of 2019 just prior to the arrival of COVID-19, non-financial corporate debt had reached record levels.  But debt growth was not restricted to corporations – [...]

Executive Summary There is real excitement in the market as the S&P 500 Index approaches its February all-time high.  So, in this week’s newsletter I am going to take a look under the hood to see if all the hoopla is warranted.  First, for the first six [...]

Executive Summary An excerpt from Investopedia’s definition of the free market is: “an economic system based on supply and demand with little or no government control.” In looking at the current situation, one will see how much Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) action and Federal government transfer payments [...]

Executive Summary Today’s stock prices are anything but reasonable, and the warning signs extend beyond stock prices.  One would think with bankruptcies escalating, debt loads compounding, profits plunging, and the dollar losing value, the stock market would be falling.  But thanks to the Fed’s electronic printing press [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared a recession officially began in February of this year.  Since March, over 50 million people have filed first time unemployment claims.  Additionally, real annualized economic growth fell 5% in the first quarter and is expected to fall [...]

Executive Summary Some investors might not realize that the S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index.  Although there are 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index, almost 22% of the performance is determined by only five companies or two percent of the total.  Investing legend Bob [...]

Executive Summary If earnings are the backbone of stock prices, the question today should be:  when earnings tumble, should stock prices continue rising?  Some might say that the stock market is “looking through” this set-back and is pricing in a return to normal.  The risk to many [...]

Executive Summary The fiscal dilemma for the Federal Government did not begin with COVID-19.  Although, the impact of the “solutions” for the pandemic are compounding the predicament.  Adding the effects of the COVID-19 recovery plans, the 2020 deficit was projected in April of this year by the [...]

Executive Summary In this market update, I take a look at the macro real estate market – recognizing that real estate is local.  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast estimates second quarter annualized GDP will fall 45.5%.  And as shown in the second graph below, existing home sales [...]

Executive Summary Subsequent to the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank dropped interest rates to near zero percent and created money in attempts to stimulate the economy.  Instead of being used for business investment and expansion, the printed money created asset bubbles everywhere.  Recessions are a [...]