Executive Summary While the S&P 500 has recovered some of its 2022 losses, do not be fooled into thinking all is well. Eight stocks including Facebook (Meta), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are responsible for 100% of the positive return so far this [...]

Executive Summary When inflation is running below 2% annually, it does not get much attention. However, last year when it hit 9%, it was on everyone’s mind. This issue looks at how inflation impacts the purchasing power of one’s savings. High inflation combined with market cycle downturns [...]

Executive Summary Due to technological advances, stock market data and trading are both more available and much faster. This leads investors to think things will immediately improve or anything negative is short-term. Take inflation, which is caused by either rising energy prices flowing through costs of products [...]

Executive Summary Recently stock markets have appeared optimistic, even though financial data does not agree. In the first graph below, one can see banks are tightening lending standards, which is consistent with prior recessions. In a debt driven society, reduced lending results in lower demand and smaller [...]

Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from Wolf Richter. This article reflects on trends that we typically use to measure our economic position - services, goods, energy, or groceries - and how they pertain to consumers, and how their current positions can [...]

Executive Summary During the COVID pandemic, many companies implemented work-from-home strategies, resulting in the realization of needing less office space. The impact of reduced occupancy (see first graph) could be an issue for owners and financiers of commercial real estate. Much of which is highly leveraged with [...]

Executive Summary Last week saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Over the weekend, regulators and government officials scrambled to forge a rescue deal for Credit Suisse, through a purchase by UBS. Credit Suisse shareholders will still suffer losses. The banking and financial system [...]

Executive Summary Last week many heard about the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Over the weekend, a joint statement (included below in The Details) was released by Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Board Chair, and Martin Gruenberg, FDIC Chairman. This letter would also [...]

Executive Summary Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the standards for financial reporting, used to be used in financial analysis. However, now the financial industry prefers “adjusted” or “forward” earnings as they allow for manipulations, justifying overpriced stocks. One can see in the second graph below the divergence [...]

Executive Summary For almost forty years mortgage interest rates were trending down (see first graph), until 2022 when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising the Fed Funds rate to fight inflation. In 2021 home prices skyrocketed (2nd graph) in part due to low rates and Federal COVID [...]