Blog
Is it Time to Take Precautions?
Executive Summary Economist John Hussman recently stated speculative bubbles teach investors “dangerously incorrect lessons” that “stocks always recover.” Stock market indices have [...]
Is a Recession on the Horizon?
Executive Summary By now many have heard first quarter real GDP turned negative by 1.4%. In the second graph one can see [...]
Can the Stock Market Really Ever Revert to the Mean?
Executive Summary The first graph below is Warren Buffet’s favorite market valuation ratio. Note from current valuations, the S&P 500 would need [...]
Inflation or Stock Prices, Has the Fed Chosen?
Executive Summary The Fed’s monetary policy for the last ten years has been characterized as “too loose for too long,” resulting in [...]
Are There Competing Forces Impacting Treasury Yields?
Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank’s policies including increasing the monetary base and funding the Federal Government’s stimulus programs led to a [...]
Will the “Solutions” be the Same Next Time?
Executive Summary In March of this year the Fed began increasing short-term interest rates. Typically, they do not start rate tightening when consumer [...]
Is it Time to Pay the Piper?
Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are [...]
Featuring John Mauldin: Brace for (Recession) Impact
Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. This article is reflecting on the trends that [...]
Will Investors Ignore What Is Under the Hood?
Executive Summary Markets have been reacting significantly on every news headline regarding the Russian/Ukrainian war. The sanctions and supply disruptions could last [...]