Blog
Blog
Inflation or Stock Prices, Has the Fed Chosen?
Executive Summary The Fed’s monetary policy for the last ten years has been characterized as “too loose for too long,” resulting in [...]
Are There Competing Forces Impacting Treasury Yields?
Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank’s policies including increasing the monetary base and funding the Federal Government’s stimulus programs led to a [...]
Will the “Solutions” be the Same Next Time?
Executive Summary In March of this year the Fed began increasing short-term interest rates. Typically, they do not start rate tightening when consumer [...]
Is it Time to Pay the Piper?
Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are [...]
Featuring John Mauldin: Brace for (Recession) Impact
Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. This article is reflecting on the trends that [...]
Will Investors Ignore What Is Under the Hood?
Executive Summary Markets have been reacting significantly on every news headline regarding the Russian/Ukrainian war. The sanctions and supply disruptions could last [...]
Can the Fed Fight Stagflation?
Executive Summary As discussed in previous newsletters, economic growth is slowing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reduced the first quarter GDP growth [...]
Is the Economy Slowing?
Executive Summary The current real GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for first quarter 2022 is 0.6%, which is a [...]
Has Multiple Expansion Turned into Multiple Contraction?
Executive Summary Multiple expansion means investors pay more per dollar of corporate earnings for a share of stock. The opposite would be [...]