Blog
Blog
How Does One Prepare for What Lies Ahead?
Executive Summary Recently I have written about the increase in speculation in the stock market as evidenced by margin debt (see first [...]
Is it Time to Address the U.S. Fiscal Dilemma?
Executive Summary The U.S. currently runs a budget deficit of almost $2 trillion, and total U.S. Federal debt is approaching $40 trillion. [...]
Where Will Oil Prices Go from Here?
Executive Summary In 2026 oil prices have round-tripped from $57 per barrel to over $110 per barrel and then back to around [...]
Where is the Economy Heading in 2026?
Executive Summary Economic growth is the sum of the growth in the labor force and growth in productivity. Recent employment data showed [...]
Is Inflation Solved?
Executive Summary New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult decision on interest rates amid conflicting economic signals and persistent inflationary [...]
Is Risk Amplified by Margin Debt?
Executive Summary Currently stock market valuations, which are notably bad timing measures, are near all-time highs (see first graph). Investors are paying [...]
What Do Consumers Need to Feel Better?
Executive Summary Although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly in June, it remains near the lowest level on record [...]
What Will New Chair Warsh Announce at His First Press Conference?
Executive Summary New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult balancing act ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. A stronger-than-expected jobs report, [...]
Why Does Warren Buffett Prefer Cash Today?
Executive Summary Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on about $400 billion of cash, and most speculate the reason is prices [...]