Executive Summary The bear market rally since October 2023 appears to have been based on exorbitant speculation on hopes of six or more Fed rate cuts. According to Citigroup, when market euphoria reaches current levels (see first graph), this sets up an 80% probability markets will be [...]

Executive Summary Last week the monthly jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created, exceeding expectations. However, the details reveal substantial increases in part-time jobs with significant losses in full-time jobs. According to one economist, part-time job growth over the last year has been 1.888 million versus a [...]

Executive Summary Some of the reasons used to justify the recent stock market bull market and bubble include: “Don’t fight the Fed,” too much liquidity in the market, zero percent Fed Funds rate, and corporate profits. The first graph shows how the Fed is tightening while the [...]

Executive Summary This week’s Update shares Warren Buffett’s comment regarding the current stock market exhibiting casino-like behavior. However, most of this week’s discussion includes excerpts from Economist Dr. John Hussman’s March 21 Market Commentary (link to full comment below). He points out that current market valuation extreme [...]

Executive Summary Last week’s issue compared the exuberance in AI stocks (specifically Nvidia) to the Technology Bubble (1990’s-2000) stocks such as Cisco Systems. This week will expand on the broader market (S&P 500) overvaluation for the same time frame. Back in 1999, 43% of stocks were trading [...]

Executive Summary In this issue comparisons will be shown between the Technology, or Dot-Com, Bubble and the current Everything Bubble – extended by the AI boom. The first graph from Charles Schwab & Co.’s chief investment strategist shows the Price-to-Sales ratio for the Technology Bubble through the [...]

Executive Summary In January 2024 the Unemployment Rate was 3.7%, leading many to believe the economy is strong due to the labor force. However, digging into the data deeper provides puzzling results. The number of employed persons has increased, albeit so have individuals holding multiple jobs, which [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s newsletter, I review the salient points relating to market conditions in Dr. John Hussman’s Interim Comment: February 25, 2024, entitled “Speculative Euphoria and the Fear of Missing Out”. Highlights include elements driving FOMO such as new market highs, possible “soft landing,” a [...]

Executive Summary Markets are again extremely overvalued in relation to long-term norms. In this issue, I provide several methodologies to explain the situation. First the trailing twelve-month P/E ratio is 27.2, with the long-term median being about 15. Next is the Shiller P/E or the (CAPE) which [...]

Executive Summary This week’s edition continues from last week in looking at Federal Government data released. Real GDI (Gross Domestic Income) and real GDP are typically the same except for some minor statistical disparities, as described below by economist Dr. John Hussman. However, looking at the first [...]