Executive Summary Between the 2008 Financial Crisis and the start of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve Bank increased its balance sheet from approximately $850 billion to about $4 trillion. From there the pandemic created a panic, and they further increased it to nearly $9 trillion (See first [...]

Executive Summary After falling about 23% for the year as of June 16th, the S&P 500 began a strong bear market rally of 17% (see first graph). Many pundits were calling the end of the bear, and the beginning  of a new bull market. However, as shown [...]

Executive Summary Mortgage rates have nearly doubled from 2.65% to 5.22%, resulting in a slowing housing market. Add in a drop in real median household income, and now there is a record gap between housing prices and incomes (see 2nd graph). Meanwhile the supply of homes is [...]

Executive Summary On Saturday, August 6, the Senate passed what is ironically titled the Inflation Reduction Act, which outlines $485 billion in new spending. After massive stimulus packages during the pandemic (2020-2021), Federal deficits increased by 38% and inflation is now around 9%. The third chart below [...]

Executive Summary Over the past month and a half, the stock market has experienced its fourth “bear market rally” since the start of the bear market at the beginning of this year. In every bear market there are strong bear market rallies. The current bear market rally [...]