Blog
Blog
Is the U.S. in Recession?
Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the official declaration of recessions, which can occur up to a year [...]
Is “Excess Savings” Gone?
Executive Summary “Excess savings” is defined as savings above the pre-pandemic trend level. The Federal Government and Federal Reserve through stimulus programs [...]
How Much Risk is Embedded in the Stock Market?
Executive Summary Over 50% of the stock options sold each day for the S&P 500 expire the same day. Translation, speculators are [...]
Have Consumers Hit Their Limit?
Executive Summary High interest rates and inflation have given the consumer pause. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged 13% last [...]
Will the Bear Market Continue?
Executive Summary After the stock market was down in April, it rose over the last two weeks. The question now is whether [...]
Why is No One Talking About the Coming Crisis?
Executive Summary As described last week, rising Federal debt combined with higher interest rates, translates to 2024 U.S. interest expense consuming nearly [...]
How Serious is the U.S. Debt Predicament?
Executive Summary The U.S. Federal debt skyrocketed from $8.8 trillion in 2007 to $34 trillion currently. Additionally, the average interest rate on [...]
What are Speculators Ignoring?
Executive Summary The bear market rally since October 2023 appears to have been based on exorbitant speculation on hopes of six or [...]
What are Full-Time Jobs Telling Us?
Executive Summary Last week the monthly jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created, exceeding expectations. However, the details reveal substantial increases in [...]