Executive Summary Estimates of growth for the first quarter of 2025 range from 0.3% to -2.8%. Consumer spending drives about 70% of economic growth, and consumers are covered in debt. The first graph shows that nominal total household debt has reached a high of $18 trillion, which [...]

Executive Summary The S&P 500 recently entered “correction” territory after falling 10% by March 13 of this year. Both the rise and the fall of the S&P 500 were led by the Mag 7 stocks. The first graph below illustrates the Mag 7 stocks leading the recent [...]

Executive Summary The Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows a 25.5 point drop in General Business Conditions (first graph), much lower than expected and in recessionary territory. Additionally, the Census Bureau released February’s Advanced Retail Sales Report which was .2% month-over-month, below expectations of .6%. And on top [...]

Executive Summary The Wall Street Journal article entitled “Biden’s Mortgage ‘Relief’ Fuels Higher Housing Prices” sheds some light on how housing prices have remained high in a rising interest rate environment. According to the article, the FHA instituted a program (as COVID relief) where missed payments are [...]

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official declarer of recessions. Oftentimes a recession is not declared until a year after it begins, due to subsequent data revisions. The first graph below shows real GDP growth, including estimates for 2025 and 2026. Of [...]

Executive Summary Existing home sales, which exclude new homes, fell about 5% in January 2025 (see inset box of first graph for 12-months). In addition to sales declining, the median price of existing home sales fell for the third month in a row in January, coming in [...]

Executive Summary In case you missed it, President Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. Politics aside, something must be done about government spending. Currently our U.S. National debt is over $36.5 trillion dollars, while the annual budget deficit last year was $1.8 trillion. Studies [...]

Executive Summary Some of the things impacting the stock market currently include tariff implementation, negotiations over tariffs, DeepSeek, AI, earnings, ISM and PMI data releases along with the January jobs report. Each datapoint seems to initiate exaggerated market moves. Partly because markets are very overvalued, as illustrated [...]

Executive Summary Futures markets were in a tailspin early Monday due to Chinese AI tool called DeepSeek. Many investors have flocked to AI computing related companies, sending their shares soaring. As of this writing, AI company equities are tumbling as much as 17% on the day. Below [...]

Executive Summary Last week’s missive discussed the affordability of housing. Look at the first graph, one can see it requires a $115,000 household income to afford a median priced home. During the pandemic, the CARES Act provided relief to those struggling to pay their mortgage. Now with [...]