Why is No One Talking About the Coming Crisis?

2024-04-30T15:45:00+00:00April 30th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As described last week, rising Federal debt combined with higher interest rates, translates to  2024 U.S. interest expense consuming nearly 62% of U.S. income tax revenue. As shown in the  first graph below, GDP growth is slowing. The brewing crisis results from the uncontrollable  fiscal [...]

What are Speculators Ignoring?

2024-04-16T18:40:23+00:00April 16th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The bear market rally since October 2023 appears to have been based on exorbitant speculation on hopes of six or more Fed rate cuts. According to Citigroup, when market euphoria reaches current levels (see first graph), this sets up an 80% probability markets will be [...]

What are Full-Time Jobs Telling Us?

2024-04-09T16:03:57+00:00April 9th, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week the monthly jobs report showed 303,000 new jobs created, exceeding expectations. However, the details reveal substantial increases in part-time jobs with significant losses in full-time jobs. According to one economist, part-time job growth over the last year has been 1.888 million versus a [...]

What Causes Stock Market Bubbles?

2024-04-02T17:38:47+00:00April 2nd, 2024|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Some of the reasons used to justify the recent stock market bull market and bubble include: “Don’t fight the Fed,” too much liquidity in the market, zero percent Fed Funds rate, and corporate profits. The first graph shows how the Fed is tightening while the [...]