Executive Summary Many respected economic analysts have been questioning the numbers being reported by the Federal Government. For example, the “new jobs” numbers reported through November 2023 were strong. However, they were just revised down by 439,000, leaving analysts to question the initial reports. Along those same [...]

Executive Summary The S&P500 has been pushed back to speculative highs. The 0dte options activity, discussed in previous newsletters, by large investment firms creates a very risky environment for individual retail investors. Pundits point to excess liquidity in the market as the reason for the highs; however, [...]

Executive Summary Consumer loans, credit cards and other revolving debt now exceed $1 trillion, far above the pre-Financial Crisis and pre-COVID balances (see first graph). Whenever consumers need to borrow money, those who extend credit create new methods to fulfill the need. The latest method is called [...]

Executive Summary 2024 will present significant obstacles for regional banks. Simply stated, regional banks use depositors’ funds to make loans or invest in Treasury and Agency securities. The sharp rise in interest rates in 2023 created significant unrealized losses from Treasury securities. During 2024 and 2025, over [...]