Executive Summary Citing strong retail sales, financial pundits are espousing a strong consumer. However, they appear to be omitting the impact of inflation. “Real” or inflation-adjusted sales have been flat or down compared to last year (see first graph). Many, who had paid down credit card balances [...]

Executive Summary The bear market rally of the last three weeks reversed the previous three-month downturn. Technically speaking the markets were very oversold and now have flipped to overbought territory.  The reason for the speculative change appears to be a hope for the Federal Reserve to pivot [...]

Executive Summary With mortgage rates fluctuating between 7-8%, consumer sentiment for house buying conditions  has dropped to the lowest level since 1982 (first graph). However, housing prices have not fallen  substantially due to low inventory (third graph). Once supply levels sufficiently exceed demand,  and if mortgage interest [...]

Executive Summary The S&P 500 Index rose five consecutive days last week, ending the week nearly 6% higher. However, note this move up is on the heels of a roughly three-month down move (see first graph).  Simply speaking, technical market analysis of markets based on 20-day moving [...]