Is the Consumer Really Strong?

2023-11-28T18:22:36+00:00November 28th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Citing strong retail sales, financial pundits are espousing a strong consumer. However, they appear to be omitting the impact of inflation. “Real” or inflation-adjusted sales have been flat or down compared to last year (see first graph). Many, who had paid down credit card balances [...]

Why Haven’t Home Prices Plummeted?

2023-11-14T18:11:17+00:00November 14th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary With mortgage rates fluctuating between 7-8%, consumer sentiment for house buying conditions  has dropped to the lowest level since 1982 (first graph). However, housing prices have not fallen  substantially due to low inventory (third graph). Once supply levels sufficiently exceed demand,  and if mortgage interest [...]