Is the Stock Market in a Secular Bear Market?

2023-09-26T16:53:24+00:00September 26th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Long-term (secular) bear markets are normally much shorter than long-term bull markets. However, they usually return stock prices to an undervalued state. Currently the valuation methodology of the Shiller P/E is 30, with the long-term average being about 16 (See first graph). Since the turn [...]

Which Indicator is Right?

2023-09-06T18:28:33+00:00September 6th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary This week’s newsletter will be abbreviated as is the Labor Day work week. The inverted yield curve, which has preceded most recessions, seems to be indicating recession (see first graph). Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is generally accepted as a recession. However, in 2022 [...]