Executive Summary Long-term (secular) bear markets are normally much shorter than long-term bull markets. However, they usually return stock prices to an undervalued state. Currently the valuation methodology of the Shiller P/E is 30, with the long-term average being about 16 (See first graph). Since the turn [...]

Executive Summary Recently crude oil prices have risen to over $90 per barrel, largely a result of production cuts by  OPEC. Many have felt the pain at the pump (see 2nd graph). Demand has not dropped after the  summer travel season, thus keeping prices on the rise. [...]

Executive Summary The Fed’s response to the 2008 Financial Crisis initiated programs which grew their balance  sheet from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion by 2014. In 2018 the Fed began reversing course and  reducing their balance sheet. However, by mid-2019 markets and the economy were showing  weakness [...]

Executive Summary This week’s newsletter will be abbreviated as is the Labor Day work week. The inverted yield curve, which has preceded most recessions, seems to be indicating recession (see first graph). Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP is generally accepted as a recession. However, in 2022 [...]