Is the Yield Curve Calling for a Recession?

2022-11-29T19:20:01+00:00November 29th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates, and the yield curve is an  upward sloping line. When short-term rates exceed long term rates, it is referred to as an  “inverted yield curve.” Visually seen in the first graph below, the inverted yield curve [...]

How is Inflation Impacting Consumers?

2022-11-22T16:58:07+00:00November 22nd, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Many people in the U.S. have much to be thankful for; albeit inflation is not one of them. Since energy prices are up 17% over last year (see first graph), holiday travel may be negatively impacted. And Thanksgiving food staples are up significantly (second graph). [...]

When Do Large One-Day Gains Occur?

2022-11-15T18:23:57+00:00November 15th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week when the Consumer Price Index was released, the stock market reacted with a large one-day rally – capping off a volatile week of up, down, and way up. Historically, these types of one-day gains occur during bear markets (first graph). In the age [...]

Are Households Really “Flush”?

2022-11-01T18:07:02+00:00November 1st, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary A recent article in The Wall Street Journal claimed consumers were “in good shape.” The fact missing from the article is the rapid decline in consumer finances. In the second graph below, one can see household debt as a percentage of real disposable personal income [...]