Executive Summary The first graph below is Warren Buffet’s favorite market valuation ratio. Note from current valuations, the S&P 500 would need to fall by 64% to reach the long-term average. While many may think it is not possible, in the last 20 years markets have twice [...]

Executive Summary The Fed’s monetary policy for the last ten years has been characterized as “too loose for too long,” resulting in overvalued equity markets and inflation. Looking at the two graphs below, one can see the overvaluation as shown by various metrics. Statistically, the overvaluation is [...]

Executive Summary The Federal Reserve Bank’s policies including increasing the monetary base and funding the Federal Government’s stimulus programs led to a surge in growth and inflation. (See right side first graph) However, now the Fed is reversing policy stances by raising interest rates and halting QE. [...]

Executive Summary In March of this year the Fed began increasing short-term interest rates. Typically, they do not start rate tightening when consumer sentiment is plummeting (see first graph). At the same time, the Fed usually does not also hold rates so low when inflation is so high [...]