Executive Summary Drawing upon Dr. Lacy Hunt’s Quarterly Review and Outlook for the third quarter 2021, this week’s commentary looks at the relationship between debt and economic growth. The amount of new debt needed to produce a new dollar of GDP currently is near an all-time high. [...]

Executive Summary In the past China’s fast-growing economy was driven by production of exports for the West. However, post the Great Recession exports waned, so China turned to infrastructure spending for growth. This resulted in the over-development of buildings and entire ghost cities (never occupied). Now the [...]

Executive Summary The longer a bubble in stock prices expands, the more the word “valuation” becomes considered irrelevant. Valuation means determining what price is reasonable for a particular stock or stock index such as the S&P 500. A few months ago, I shared a valuation calculation chart, [...]

Executive Summary Is $28 trillion in United States government debt not enough?  The answer is “no”, as the Congressionally approved deficit spending will require an increase in the U.S. debt limit.  The debt has grown no matter which political party controls the White House (see first graph).  [...]