Resources

Is the Jobs Market Strong?
Executive Summary A look at the “strong” employment data reveals some discrepancies casting doubts on the employment picture. For instance, the Establishment [...]
Is the U.S. in Recession?
Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the official declaration of recessions, which can occur up to a year [...]
Is “Excess Savings” Gone?
Executive Summary “Excess savings” is defined as savings above the pre-pandemic trend level. The Federal Government and Federal Reserve through stimulus programs [...]
How Much Risk is Embedded in the Stock Market?
Executive Summary Over 50% of the stock options sold each day for the S&P 500 expire the same day. Translation, speculators are [...]
Have Consumers Hit Their Limit?
Executive Summary High interest rates and inflation have given the consumer pause. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged 13% last [...]
Will the Bear Market Continue?
Executive Summary After the stock market was down in April, it rose over the last two weeks. The question now is whether [...]

