Executive Summary The U.S. Federal debt is now over $37 trillion. In the first graph below, one can see Real (inflation adjusted) GDP growth is now 12.9% below the long-term trend. Economist Lacy Hunt has stated studies indicate when Federal debt-to-GDP exceeds 90% for five consecutive years, [...]

Executive Summary Last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the now infamous Jackson Hole meeting. In The Details below are excerpts from his talk. However, the markets only appeared to care about the following quote: “…the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant [...]

Executive Summary This week includes a number of data points for our readers to ponder. First the concentration risk in the S&P 500, evidenced by the first graph, which shows the largest capitalization stocks in the S&P 500 Index have never been priced this high relative to [...]

Executive Summary Once again stock prices are pushing record levels. In recent years, investors have seen how the Magnificent 7 have driven up markets. Now, in the first graph, one can see how technology stocks as a share if the market have reached Dot-Com levels. The Schiller [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I follow up on the GDP report released after last week’s issue and then cover the employment numbers from last week. The first graph shows the surge in imports in the first quarter (frontrunning tariffs) reversed in the second quarter. The [...]

Executive Summary On Wednesday, July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. After falling 0.5%, annualized, in the first quarter (see first graph), many are expecting a rebound in real growth to about 2-3% in Q2. One can [...]

Executive Summary In this week’s issue, three valuation metrics will be shared to illustrate both the current high and the downside of previous market cycles. The Price-to-Sales ratio in the first graph has never been higher. Following in graph two is The Buffet Indicator, take note of [...]

Executive Summary A Minsky Moment, via the Corporate Finance Institute, “…is named after an American economist, Hyman Minsky, who claimed that markets are susceptible to being unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.” There are three phases in the cycle leading to [...]

Executive Summary This missive compares data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report and the ADP payroll numbers. Last week the BLS reported 147,000 new jobs (private & government), which is obtained from survey responses. ADP reported private sector jobs fell by 33,000, which is [...]

Executive Summary According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter 2025 (released May 2025), total consumer debt has reached $18.2 trillion. Consumers are strapped as higher interest rates on growing debt balances are eating up a larger portion [...]