Executive Summary The stock market move this year has primarily been a result of the Magnificent 7 stocks, as well as the change in options trading. The options market is now 11% bigger than the stock market in terms of assets deployed. Utilizing zero days to expiration [...]

Executive Summary Speculators in the stock market are betting on the Federal Reserve Bank lowering the Federal Funds Rate. Although, Jerome Powell has said rates will not be lowered until inflation reaches their 2% target. The first graph below compares the inflation rate of 3.2% (measured by [...]

Executive Summary With last quarter’s credit and government-spending inspired 5.2% annualized GDP print, combined with the Atlanta Fed’s November 22 GDPNow estimate for annualized fourth quarter GDP growth at 2.1%, calls for a recession have moved to calls for a “soft landing.” The ISM November Manufacturing PMI [...]