Is a Recession Underway?

2023-06-27T17:31:52+00:00June 27th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary When short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, the curve is considered inverted. Typically, this occurs just prior to or during recessions. In the first graph below, one can see the curve has not been this inverted in 40 years. Additionally, leading economic [...]

Is it Time to Step Back and Look Again?

2023-06-13T18:22:42+00:00June 13th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Over the past decade, the Fed’s monetary policy was seen as the most important determinant for the direction of the stock market. The Fed has maintained tightening policies for over a year, reducing the size of their balance sheet and raising interest rates. A couple [...]

Did May’s Job Gains Eliminate a Recession?

2023-06-06T15:27:22+00:00June 6th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 339,000 new jobs were created in May, and the unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.7%.  The jobs number is derived from the Establishment Survey, while the unemployment number is from the Household Survey. Of note is [...]