Is the U.S. in a Recession?

2023-01-31T17:56:28+00:00January 31st, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter for dating recessions, has not yet declared one – although many economists are predicting one in 2023. Many datapoints are either declining or are reaching points where previous recessions have started. Look at the graphs below including: [...]

Has the Fed Distorted Secular Market Cycles?

2023-01-24T17:16:28+00:00January 24th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Stock markets move in long-term (secular) and shorter-term (cyclical cycles). Historically, the Shiller Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio could be used to define secular cycles. In the first graph below, one can see secular bull markets tend to start in single-digit Shiller P/E ratios and end in [...]

What Does 2023 Hold?

2023-01-17T17:44:00+00:00January 17th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As 2023 gets underway, the bear market pattern of 2022 continues. After a few down days, another bear market rally appeared. Notice in the first graph below, the S&P 500 has been on a downward trend since the start of 2022. However, as is typical [...]

Which Payroll Numbers are Correct?

2023-01-10T19:41:17+00:00January 10th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The December Job’s Report released last Friday provided optimism that inflation is slowing enough to push the FED to “pivot.” Private sector hourly wage inflation slowed to 0.3%. However, it is the apparent strength of the employment situation which astonishes pundits. Key employment datapoints comparing [...]

Will 2023 be Better?

2023-01-04T18:38:21+00:00January 4th, 2023|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Asset classes of all types fell last year, leaving a traditional “buy-and-hold balanced portfolio” consisting of 60% S&P 500 and 40% cash and Treasuries, down about 17%. However, the declines were not straight down as evidenced by the S&P 500 (first graph below showing bear [...]