Executive Summary Last week’s Update discussed what could fuel a Santa Claus rally. While the CPI data provided  some fuel, Jerome Powell threw cold water extinguishing the hopes for a rally. The slightly  cooler CPI data resulted in hope for a Fed policy pivot and a market [...]

Executive Summary Talk by financial media for the always hoped-for Santa Claus rally is rampant. On December 13 the CPI for November will be released. If it is down, there will be hope of a Fed pivot. The Fed should state their interpretation at their meeting on [...]

Executive Summary After the pandemic, inflation hit in 2022 because of the massive government stimulus programs. The Fed began fighting inflation by reducing the balance sheet (first graph) and raising interest rates (second graph). The dollar also rose by around 19%, and after giving up some of [...]