Executive Summary The Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate again last week by 0.75% in the fight against inflation. In  the second graph below one can see the estimated rates through 2025. In addition to interest rate  moves, the Fed is also tightening monetary policy by reducing [...]

Executive Summary U.S. Federal debt outstanding totals about $31 trillion. From 2018-2021 (4 years) the debt grew as much as it did for the first 232 years (founding through 2007) combined! Now take a look at the math: U.S. Estimated Income Tax Revenue          [...]

Executive Summary One Federal Reserve goal is maintaining an average of 2% inflation, which from around 2012 until the pandemic was a struggle (see first graph). Due to the massive government spending efforts and the supply constraints created from COVID19 and the Russia/Ukrainian war, inflation finally began [...]

Executive Summary One indicator for determining stock market valuation is the Price-to-Earnings ratio (P/E). In this missive, I explain how the math (increases/decreases in numerator and denominator) impacts the ratio in changing market cycles. Generally, if price rises and earnings remain the same the ratio increases, and [...]