Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates (inverted yield curve), it has typically been a precursor to a recession (see third graph). Most people have recognized steep inflation [...]

Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. This article is reflecting on the trends that we are seeing popping up that resemble markets of years past. John begins his take by saying, "The Strange Recession we are now entering is [...]

Executive Summary Markets have been reacting significantly on every news headline regarding the Russian/Ukrainian war.  The sanctions and supply disruptions could last long past any potential peace deal. Also, the equity markets were selling off this year before the war started as inflation was rising (see first [...]

Executive Summary As discussed in previous newsletters, economic growth is slowing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reduced the first quarter GDP growth estimate to 0.0% from the previously reported .6% estimate. Now with Russia invading Ukraine, the effects of war could further negatively impact growth. Gas prices [...]

Executive Summary The current real GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for first quarter 2022 is 0.6%, which is a 6.4% drop from fourth quarter 2021. During 2020 and 2021 government stimulus money increased household’s disposable personal incomes, which resulted in their spending more, saving [...]