Is it Time to Pay the Piper?

2022-03-29T17:21:53+00:00March 29th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary In a healthy economy, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates (see first graph). However, when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates (inverted yield curve), it has typically been a precursor to a recession (see third graph). Most people have recognized steep inflation [...]

Will Investors Ignore What Is Under the Hood?

2022-04-05T16:16:31+00:00March 15th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Markets have been reacting significantly on every news headline regarding the Russian/Ukrainian war.  The sanctions and supply disruptions could last long past any potential peace deal. Also, the equity markets were selling off this year before the war started as inflation was rising (see first [...]

Can the Fed Fight Stagflation?

2022-04-05T16:16:45+00:00March 8th, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary As discussed in previous newsletters, economic growth is slowing. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model reduced the first quarter GDP growth estimate to 0.0% from the previously reported .6% estimate. Now with Russia invading Ukraine, the effects of war could further negatively impact growth. Gas prices [...]

Is the Economy Slowing?

2022-04-05T16:17:03+00:00March 1st, 2022|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The current real GDP estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for first quarter 2022 is 0.6%, which is a 6.4% drop from fourth quarter 2021. During 2020 and 2021 government stimulus money increased household’s disposable personal incomes, which resulted in their spending more, saving [...]