Will the Fed Actually Tighten?

2021-08-31T17:37:38+00:00August 31st, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Last week all the economic focus was on what Fed Chairman Powell would say at the Jackson Hole meeting. It seems the Fed, as usual, allowed itself enough wiggle room with no real time commitment, and investors decided to opt for a bullish interpretation. The [...]

Should Speculators Ignore History?

2021-08-17T15:53:48+00:00August 17th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing and mentor to Warren Buffett, in December 1959 commented that at the peak of all bull markets, “past experience” only represents the “sunny side of the investment”. And he also indicated the sentiment that the market has always [...]

Is the U.S. Really Near Full Employment?

2021-08-10T16:35:32+00:00August 10th, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary The Jobs Report released last week reported 943,000 new jobs, and the markets and media celebrated.  What the headline did not reflect was the actual loss of 133,000 jobs, which then was seasonally adjusted (part of the calculation) to arrive at the nearly one million [...]

Has the Economy Recovered?

2021-08-10T16:35:50+00:00August 3rd, 2021|Categories: INVESTMENT|

Executive Summary Most investors take a myopic view of economic growth. When viewed in isolation, second quarter real annualized GDP growth of 6.5% sounds outstanding. However, GDP growth per capita remains below trend (second graph below). For the economy to grow, there must be either productivity growth, [...]