Blog
Blog
Are Consumers Waving a Red Flag?
Executive Summary Consumers drive our economy, and the Consumer Sentiment Index is a measure of how consumers are feeling. The April 2025 [...]
Can the Stock Market Be “Oversold” and “Overvalued”?
Executive Summary With last week’s drastic market decline, many have heard financial pundits proclaim the stock market is “oversold.” Briefly, oversold is [...]
Is a Recession Next?
Executive Summary Estimates of growth for the first quarter of 2025 range from 0.3% to -2.8%. Consumer spending drives about 70% of [...]
Does the Equity Bubble Remain Intact?
Executive Summary The S&P 500 recently entered “correction” territory after falling 10% by March 13 of this year. Both the rise and [...]
Are Consumers Spending Less?
Executive Summary The Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows a 25.5 point drop in General Business Conditions (first graph), much lower than expected [...]
How Has the Government Hidden a Potential Mortgage Crisis?
Executive Summary The Wall Street Journal article entitled “Biden’s Mortgage ‘Relief’ Fuels Higher Housing Prices” sheds some light on how housing prices [...]
What Are the Odds of a Recession?
Executive Summary The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official declarer of recessions. Oftentimes a recession is not declared until [...]
Are Home Prices in a Bubble?
Executive Summary Existing home sales, which exclude new homes, fell about 5% in January 2025 (see inset box of first graph for [...]
Does the U.S. Need DOGE?
Executive Summary In case you missed it, President Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. Politics aside, something must be [...]