Blog
Blog
How Fast Can Speculators Reach the Exit?
Executive Summary Once again stock prices are pushing record levels. In recent years, investors have seen how the Magnificent 7 have driven [...]
Is the Data Reliable?
Executive Summary In this week’s missive, I follow up on the GDP report released after last week’s issue and then cover the [...]
Is the U.S. in Recession?
Executive Summary On Wednesday, July 30, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth. After [...]
How Much Further Can It Go?
Executive Summary In this week’s issue, three valuation metrics will be shared to illustrate both the current high and the downside of [...]
Is the U.S. Headed Towards a Minsky Moment?
Executive Summary A Minsky Moment, via the Corporate Finance Institute, “…is named after an American economist, Hyman Minsky, who claimed that markets [...]
Which Payroll Report is More Accurate?
Executive Summary This missive compares data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report and the ADP payroll numbers. Last week [...]
Is Consumer Debt Worsening?
Executive Summary According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter 2025 (released May [...]
Should the History of Multiple Expansion & Contraction Be Ignored?
Executive Summary The first chart below from Vetta-Fi illustrates the average of four separate valuation methodologies. Currently, this average is about 152% [...]
Was the May Jobs Report Strong?
Executive Summary As is typical with financial media, the 139,000 new jobs number released Friday was a celebrated “beat.” However, looking under [...]