Executive Summary Stock analysts’ earnings estimates tend to error on the optimistic side, as shown in first graph below 2023 estimates start at the peak and go up. Analysts often revise estimates down so corporate earnings will “beat” estimates, even when earnings decrease over prior year. During [...]

Executive Summary This week I wanted to share a guest article from John Mauldin. He begins his analysis of "Forgotten Lessons" here: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” is a well-known quote that’s also incomplete. You can remember the past vividly and [...]

Executive Summary Financial media proclaims the job market is strong, citing 372,000 jobs created in June according to the Establishment Survey. However, digging into the details reveals some ignored discrepancies. Since March 2022, the Establishment Survey shows 1.124 million jobs created where the Household Survey shows 347,000 [...]

Executive Summary During the first quarter, economic growth fell 1.6%. Many expected a rebound in Q2. Unfortunately, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecasting model, the economy shrank again in the second quarter by an estimated 2.1%. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is what many pundits [...]