Executive Summary In September 1981, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note peaked at around 15.8%, and the annual inflation rate was about 10.8% resulting in a “real” (after inflation) rate of about 5%. Today, the 10-year Treasury is yielding about 1.40%, and inflation in November rose [...]

Executive Summary Corporate profit margins are being squeezed by upward wage pressure and downward productivity, all while stock prices are rising. The second graph below of the Wilshire 5000 Index divided by GDP shows bubble values which are almost 50% higher than the peak of the 2000 [...]

Executive Summary The Volatility Index, known as the Vix, is a projection of future volatility and fear in the market. Over the long run it averages about 18. A move above 20 means risk is building, and a move over 30 indicates higher daily volatility and downside [...]